NRL Tips – Round 10, 2017

Round 9 was pretty typical, garnering roughly five from eight correct tips. I suggested that there might be some trouble getting it right, and I was right about that, but the trouble came from surprising areas, e.g. the Warriors sneaking home against the Roosters in the dying minutes of the game.

“Success”

I’d like to thank the rep round for cratering my traffic stats last week. All people want is more tipping advice, despite this site’s experts collectively tipping at a level best described as “awful”. The jury’s hanging in there well. My rate is slowly improving but nothing beats relying on class it seems with Eratosthenes leading the way, just a smidge under 60%. If this continues, it would be Eratos’ most successful season since 2011. Euclid, on the other hand, needs to add 8% to its rate to even hope to challenge its worst season.

After round 9:

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Draw

north qld-sm North Queensland (5-4) @ canterbury-sm Canterbury (5-4)

cronulla-sm Cronulla (6-3) @ st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra (6-3)

souths-sm South Sydney (3-6) @ wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers (3-6)

warriors-sm New Zealand (4-5) @ penrith-sm Penrith (2-7)

gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast (3-6) @ melbourne-sm Melbourne (8-1) [double header at Suncorp]

brisbane-sm Brisbane (6-3) @ manly-sm Manly (5-4) [double header at Suncorp]

canberra-sm Canberra (4-5) @ newcastle-sm Newcastle (1-8)

parramatta-sm Parramatta (5-4) @ sydney city-sm Sydney (6-3)

Tips

The first four games of the round are hard to call. We have a jury consensus on three of them but it’s a close run thing. The Sharks are only just favoured over the Dragons but I think the Dragons will lag the top teams until they get their top tier players back.

I’ve gone the Bulldogs over the Cowboys, who have been smashed out of contention for the season it seems with an injury list a mile long, as have the other three. Thurston might be back after a succesful test match but he was also on the field when NQ got belted by Wests and won’t be supported by a top class national lineup.

The Tigers-Rabbitohs game is a question is “Who is not-quite-but-almost the worst in the NRL?” The Tigers seem to be in more of an upswing while the Rabbits are definitely coming down and the Tigers are favoured by all except on a class basis.

The Warriors-Panthers game is split but Euclid and Eratosthenes are overrating the Panthers. This is the same team who’s only wins come from beating the Tigers and the Knights. Meanwhile, the Warriors have managed to cap the Knights, Titans, Eels and Roosters.

The double header at Suncorp – technically a home game for Melbourne and Manly – is throwing off the homefield advantage to the extent that two systems prefer the Sea Eagles over the Broncos. This one has split the jury, although I’m fairly confident of being right in backing the Broncs.

The Storm would’ve been favourites either way and it’s hard to see the Titans getting over the top but they have hit a, ahem, purple patch. They’re a one-in-four chance against the Storm compared to the one-in-five we rated them against the Sharks.

As usual, the Knights will go down hard, even against the sluggish Raiders outfit that’s turned up to the last few games, and the Roosters will probably be too good for the Eels.

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