Club Report – Penrith Panthers

pen-lgBackground

Penrith first joined the NSWRL in 1967, the same year that Cronulla was admitted to the competition. Success came much sooner for the Panthers, reaching their first grand final in 1990 and taking out the big prize in 1991.

The Panthers had some leaner years, including a very mediocre 2002 season, before a surge at the start of the 2000s saw a side featuring Rhys Wesser, Preston Campbell, Ryan Girdler, Luke Priddis and captained by Craig Gower taking a second premiership in 2003 and making it deep into the finals the following year.

Since then, the club seems to have a spurt of quality for a season or two before fading into the background again. The Panthers look to be going through a similar spurt at the moment with finals football the cards for two years in a row, which would be only their seventh NRL finals appearance.

Class

Using the Eratosthenes system, we measure the long term class – their structural competence – of NRL clubs.

The Penrith Panthers’ current rating is 1495, just a smidge below average. Penrith have had an average class rating of 1477 since 1998. This is below the league average and is better than Gold Coast, North Queensland, Souths and Wests and equal with Canberra. Over the last decade, their average rating has been 1464. Only the Sharks have a worse average rating of the last ten years, but it is close to that of the Eels and Titans.

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The Panthers peaked at a maximum rating of 1575 during the 2004 finals series. Only the Titans, Warriors, Raiders and Tigers have never been better.

Penrith’s lowest ever rating was 1407, most recently after round 6, 2013 but also after round 23, 2002, just before the 2003 premiership run began. Cronulla, Manly, Newcastle, North Queensland, Parramatta, Souths, New Zealand and Wests have all had lower ratings.

NRL Honours

  • Premierships – 1 | 2003
  • Runners-up – 0
  • Minor Premierships – 0
  • Finalist – 6 | 2000, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2014, 2016
  • Wooden Spoons – 2 | 2001, 2007

Record (rd1/1998 – rd16/2017)

  • Games 484
  • Wins 224 (45.4%)
  • Draws 5
  • Points For 10,603
  • Points Against 11,153
  • Net F/A -550
  • Pythagorean expectation 47.6%

Form

Using the Archimedes system, we measure the short term form of NRL clubs.

Penrith have averaged a form rating of 1516 over the last 26 regular season rounds. Their current rating is 1487.

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The Panthers’ highest rating was 1675 after the qualifying final last year. The lowest rating was 1385 after round 9 this year, a slump they appear to have come out of.

Record (last 26 rounds)

  • Finished 2016 in 6th
  • Games 26
  • Wins 14 (53.9%)
  • Draws 0
  • Points For 612
  • Points Against 465
  • Net F/A +147
  • Pythagorean expectation 68.2%

Stocky Projection

We use the Stocky to predict what might happen in the season ahead. This is what the Stocky has predicted for Penrith so far in the 2017 season.

 

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