Club Report – Parramatta Eels

par-lgBackground

Parramatta of the ’80s and Parramatta of the ’00s were powerhouses of top flight rugby league. The ’80s vintage managed to win their first, second, third and fourth premierships. The ’00s vintage, on the other hand, was less successful. In 2001, Parra won all but four games of the regular season, taking the minor premiership, and secured a grand finals berth. The opportunity to claim their first title in fifteen years went begging as Newcastle took honours that year. A less dominating, but still minor premiership winning, performance in 2005 took them deep into the finals only to be eliminated at the preliminary final by the Cowboys.

Depending on your perspective, the Eels were robbed of a premiership in 2009. Despite finishing in eighth position that year, Parra made the grand final against the Melbourne Storm. The Storm won the game but were later stripped of the title due to salary cap breaches. It would be the last time the Eels played finals football, declining from there to pick up back-to-back wooden spoons in 2012 and 2013. Last year, Parramatta joined the illustrious club of serious salary cap breachers themselves. This cost them their first shot at finals football since 2009. With that behind them, the Eels are well on track this year to break their drought.

Class

Using the Eratosthenes system, we measure the long term class – their structural competence – of NRL clubs.

The Parramatta Eels’ current rating is 1496, putting them a touch under average. The Eels have had an average class rating of 1510 since 1998. It’s the equal sixth highest average rating of that time, behind Brisbane, Canterbury, Melbourne, St George Illawarra, Sydney City and tied with Manly Warringah.

Over the last decade, the Eels’ average rating was 1465. This is the third worst in the league with only Cronulla and Canberra performing worse since 2007 and the same as Penrith.

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The Eels peaked at a maximum rating of 1663 during the 2001 finals series. This is the third highest of any team. Only Melbourne (30 points higher) and Sydney (2 points) have peaked higher. In the last ten years, Parramatta peaked at 1558 during the 2009 final series. Canberra, Newcastle, Gold Coast, Penrith and New Zealand have not reached a rating this high over the last decade.

The Eels’ lowest ever rating was 1368, after round 13, 2013. There are five teams that have had lower ratings, including Manly, Newcastle, North Queensland, Souths and Wests. Over the last decade, only Souths and Newcastle have achieved a lower rating.

NRL Honours

  • Premierships – 0
  • Runners-up – 2 | 2001, 2009
  • Minor Premierships – 2 | 2001, 2005
  • Finalist – 9 | 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009
  • Wooden Spoons – 2 | 2012, 2013

Record (rd1/1998 – rd21/2017)

  • Games 501
  • Wins 248 (49.5%)
  • Draws 8
  • Points For 10,448
  • Points Against 10,356
  • Net F/A +92
  • Pythagorean expectation 50.4%

Form

Using the Archimedes system, we measure the short term form of NRL clubs.

The Eels have averaged a form rating of 1505 over the last 26 regular season rounds. Their current rating is 1634.

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The Eels’ highest rating over the last twenty-six rounds is their present one, after last weekend’s win over the Broncos. The lowest rating in the set is 1428, achieved after the loss in round 24, 2016 to the Raiders and after round 6’s loss to the Warriors this year.

Record (last 26 rounds)

  • Finished 2016 in 9th
  • Currently 6th
  • Games 24
  • Wins 14 (60.9%)
  • Draws 0
  • Points For 466
  • Points Against 468
  • Net F/A -2
  • Pythagorean expectation 49.8%

Stocky Projection

We use the Stocky to predict what might happen in the season ahead. This is what the Stocky has predicted for Parramatta so far in the 2017 season.

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