NRL Tips – Grand Final, 2017

I can finally put a woefully inadequate season of tipping behind me. For a guy that had an Elo rating system that could practically see the future last year (up around 67%), Euclid did let us all down really badly this year.

But how good has the football been? This weekend sees the fairy tale-esque giant-slaying North Queensland Cowboys take on the machine-like Terminators of the Melbourne Storm to decide which side gets to take home the 2017 premiership.

Draw

melbourne-sm Melbourne (20-4) vs north qld-sm North Queensland (13-11)

The Cowboys have ridden an improbably large share of possession to starve their opponents of the ball coupled with an improbably well-timed run in form, particularly for star players like Michael Morgan and Jason Taumalolo, to get through to what the media insists on referring to as the “Big Dance”. Why? Who knows? Wendell Sailor hasn’t done his jig on a football field in over a decade and there hasn’t been much in the way of successors.

While even their presence in the final eight was something of a fluke, there’s no doubting that the Cowboys have handily accounted for the Sharks, Eels and Roosters to annihilate NSW’s best chance of having a presence in the grand final. Peak Queenslanding that is and I’m confident that most of the state – and Sydney – has jumped on the Cows’ bandwagon.

Melbourne have won 22 games this season. They’ve lost to the Sharks, Titans, Roosters (golden point) and the Eels. Their last loss was on July 8. The grand final is played on October 1. That’s three months undefeated. It’s a supremely crazy level of dominance that we ran out of superlatives to describe two months ago. The only thing that would require an even more extreme superlative is if they somehow managed to stuff this up.

The two teams have met twice this year with the Storm winning both games. The first, during Origin period, was by a single point in extra time, and the second much more comfortably in Townsville back in August. Since 1998, the two teams have met 36 times with Melbourne winning 25 of those for a winning percentage of 69%, roughly in line with their long term winning rate.

North Queensland are by no means out of this. Indeed, they are as good a shot as any team of stopping the Storm. Melbourne have their weaknesses – they don’t love being behind and aren’t quite sure what to do when challenged – and the Cowboys may get lucky enough to exploit them. The Broncos weren’t and got laughably steamrolled in the process.

But yeah, I’m tipping the Storm. Sorry, everyone.

Tips

fw4-2017-round tips

“Success”

After week 3:

fw4-2017-correct tips

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NRL Tips – Preliminary Finals, 2017

We’re down to the final four. There’s the impossibly good expansion team from Melbourne, the pretty good expansion team from Brisbane, the grit-sucking, giant-slaying fairy tale machine from regional Queensland and there’s the 109 year old club of gronks that no one in their city wants to support.

The NRL could not have set it up better with the four major TV markets represented. I’m assuming that the twenty or so in Melbourne that will watch this weekend would have out-numbered the theoretical audience in Auckland should the Warriors ever get their act together.

In the meantime, and with my tipping record now falling behind people who haven’t bothered to tip since July, here’s my preliminary final tips.

Draw

brisbane-sm Brisbane (16-8) @ melbourne-sm Melbourne (20-4)

I think everyone in Brisbane wanted to avoid this scenario but here we are. In fact, had the Broncos done a better job in their qualifying final, they wouldn’t be here and would instead be facing a Cowboys outfit that, while good, is not once-in-a-generation good. The good news is that Oates and Boyd are back and Brisbane are as close to full strength as they’re going to get in a year where just about every player has had some time off. If only Adam Blair would pull a hamstring, we could get him on a plane to New Zealand by half time and he’d stop being a deadweight. That is unless he scores the winning try in which case I never doubted him but that’s about as likely as Brisbane being in the position to score a winning try. I guess what I’m saying is, anything’s possible.

Here’s some fun facts: Melbourne have won 64% of their games since their founding in 1998. They’ve led the NRL all-time winning percentage since 2007. The previous decade saw four clubs top that list at one point or another. At home, Melbourne have won 75% of their games and their record at home against Brisbane is 68%. That’s before we even get into the stats about this year’s team, like they’re the first NRL team to get to 44 points without breaching the salary cap. Yet.

I could go on about the Storm and while I hold out a little hope for the Broncos, it’s going to be a Melbourne win.

Continue reading “NRL Tips – Preliminary Finals, 2017”

NRL Tips – Semi Finals, 2017

I was right at least that my bracket was destroyed within fifteen minutes of the first game as the Roosters went to an early lead against the Broncos that they only briefly gave up. I finished the round one tip from four, meaning that the only thing I got right was that I got my bracket wrong.

Fortunately, a new week of finals brings new opportunities to get things wrong.

Draw

penrith-sm Penrith (13-11) @ brisbane-sm Brisbane (16-8)

The Panthers rode Nathan Cleary like Hannibal crossing the Alps (sixteen of them riding one elephant somehow) through yet another game that somehow resulted in victory. I just looked up the team list to see if he had any teammates and the only name I recognised was Josh Mansour and that’s only because he looks like he should be robbing stagecoaches in 1890s Ballarat. Penrith did a good job of turning around the fixture that they lost only a week before, particularly having to come from behind in the last ten minutes, which is roughly the amount of time that the Panthers’ premiership chances have left.

Brisbane and Sydney played their usual roles on the stage of rugby league, the Broncos as Brisbane and the Roosters playing the role of Sydney. It was practically a spec script: the Broncos went behind early, the Roosters lifted their foot off the pedal too early and Brisbane stormed back to take an unlikely lead with ten minutes to go, capitalising on the unlikeliest of Roosters’ errors. Painfully weak Broncos defence saw the Roosters’ superstar-in-the-making Latrell Mitchell get through for the game winning try. It was a fun time while it lasted, even if it was only five minutes, which is roughly the amount of time that the Broncos’ premiership chances have left.

I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the Panthers win it, just because Brisbane haven’t been that reliable, but I think that the Broncos are really itching to cop a hammering from the Storm.

Continue reading “NRL Tips – Semi Finals, 2017”

Club Report – Melbourne Storm

mel-lgBackground

The Melbourne Storm were founded in 1998, in the immediate aftermath of the Super League-ARL dispute. Getting a team in Melbourne was a priority for Newscorp in order to expand the footprint of the game.

Early financial concessions meant that the Storm won their first premiership in only their second season in 1999. Thereafter, more sustained success arrived, with three minor premierships in a row from 2006 to 2008, four grand finals in a row from 2006 to 2009 and two premierships in 2007 and 2009. Melbourne, and rivals Manly, were the most dominant teams of this period. It all came apart in 2010 when massive salary cap rorts were uncovered. The Storm were stripped of the minor and major premierships from the 2006 to 2009 period and lost all their competition points in 2010, ensuring the club’s only wooden spoon.

The Storm bounced back quickly, winning a legitimate minor premiership in 2011 and a premiership in 2012. Since then, they’ve kept winning with two more minor premierships in 2016 and 2017. There’s not a lot of superlatives left to describe the Storm – even their cheating was monumental and they’ve had more NRL titles stripped than most clubs have won – and the 2017 team could make an excellent case for being the best vintage produced in the last twenty years.

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NRL Projections Update – Finals Wk 1, 2017

This is the last projections update for the year. It’s come around so fast.

While I realise there’s still three weeks of finals left, in reality there’s three games left after next weekend. The Stocky is not great at dealing with small sample sizes of games, as evidenced by its relative lack of performance towards the year’s end, so its a little pointless doing it any further this year. I might tweet something instead. Let’s also ignore the fact that the Storm are unbackable favourites at the moment.

The projections will be back next year, rebranded and tarted up, and the tips posts will continue until I sign off sometime after grand final day.

Results

sydney city-sm Sydney City 24 (17-7) d brisbane-sm Brisbane 22 (16-8)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 18 (20-4) d parramatta-sm Parramatta 16 (16-8)

penrith-sm Penrith 22 (13-11) d manly-sm Manly 10 (14-10)

north qld-sm North Queensland 15 (13-11) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 14 (15-9)

Continue reading “NRL Projections Update – Finals Wk 1, 2017”

Club Report – Sydney Roosters

syd-lgBackground

Founded in 1908 as Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney Roosters are one of rugby league’s longest standing clubs. Playing out of Allianz Stadium, the Roosters (or Easts or City or Tricolours or Chooks) are one of the NRL’s success stories, having won thirteen premierships and nineteen minor premierships in their long history.

More recently, Easts have been one of the most successful of the Sydney based clubs, winning three minor premierships in a row from 2013 through 2015, including a premiership in 2013, and were a powerhouse in the early 2000s, winning the premiership in 2002. The club has attracted a large number of stars over the years, including Brad Fittler, Adrian Lam, Arthur Beetson, Ron Coote, Anthony Minichello, Craig Fitzgibbon, the original immortal Dally Messenger and some gronks like Mitchell Pearce and Todd Carney.

Sydney maintain a close rivalry with Souths that is the subject of the Ron Coote Cup.

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NRL Tips – Qualifying Finals, 2017

If you haven’t checked out the deep dive in this year’s finals yet, I urge you to do so. I’ve sliced the finals every which way imaginable but for the record, here’s my bracket that will almost certainly be destroyed within fifteen minutes of the first game:

2017 finals bracket.PNG

Here’s why I tipped the way I did.

Draw

brisbane-sm Brisbane (16-8) @ sydney city-sm Sydney City (17-7)

If you’re only going to tune into one final this weekend, not only would I question your presence on this blog (shit’s about to get a whole lot harder), but I would recommend it be this game because it’s the only one paper that might be close.

The Roosters come into this slight favourites, having finished higher on the ladder and playing at home. The regular season record was one win a piece, although the aggregate score of 48-24 is well in the Donkeys’ favour. It’s tighter than Sam Kasiano’s jersey.

One of the big question marks is whether Brisbane are any good without Darius Boyd. Kodi didn’t have a great game as his replacement in fullback but returns to the number 1 jersey this week but given Derrius’ performance against Parramatta, his absence may be more boon than bane.

I think Brisbane will get this. Despite everything they’ve done to me this year, I reckon they have it in them.

Continue reading “NRL Tips – Qualifying Finals, 2017”