NRL Projections Update – Finals Wk 1, 2017

This is the last projections update for the year. It’s come around so fast.

While I realise there’s still three weeks of finals left, in reality there’s three games left after next weekend. The Stocky is not great at dealing with small sample sizes of games, as evidenced by its relative lack of performance towards the year’s end, so its a little pointless doing it any further this year. I might tweet something instead. Let’s also ignore the fact that the Storm are unbackable favourites at the moment.

The projections will be back next year, rebranded and tarted up, and the tips posts will continue until I sign off sometime after grand final day.

Results

sydney city-sm Sydney City 24 (17-7) d brisbane-sm Brisbane 22 (16-8)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 18 (20-4) d parramatta-sm Parramatta 16 (16-8)

penrith-sm Penrith 22 (13-11) d manly-sm Manly 10 (14-10)

north qld-sm North Queensland 15 (13-11) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 14 (15-9)

Continue reading “NRL Projections Update – Finals Wk 1, 2017”

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NRL Projections Update – Round 26, 2017

Results

brisbane-sm Brisbane 20 (16-8) d north qld-sm North Queensland 10 (13-11)

parramatta-sm Parramatta 22 (16-8) d souths-sm South Sydney 16 (9-15)

sydney city-sm Sydney City 20 (17-7) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 16 (7-17)

manly-sm Manly 28 (14-10) d penrith-sm Penrith 12 (13-11)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 32 (20-4) d canberra-sm Canberra 6 (11-13)

cronulla-sm Cronulla 26 (15-9) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 18 (5-19)

canterbury-sm Canterbury 26 (10-14) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 20 (12-12)

wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 28 (7-17) d warriors-sm New Zealand 16 (7-17)

Ladder Compare

Normally, we’d run through the Collated Ladder but this week, being the end of the regular season and the real ladder is far more accurate (being complete and all), I thought I’d compare the different systems to see how their rankings stack up:

Continue reading “NRL Projections Update – Round 26, 2017”

NRL Projections Update – Round 25, 2017

Results

parramatta-sm Parramatta 52 (15-8) d brisbane-sm Brisbane 34 (15-8)

canberra-sm Canberra 46 (11-12) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 28 (5-18)

north qld-sm North Queensland 22 (13-10) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 14 (6-17)

canterbury-sm Canterbury 26 (9-14) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 14 (7-16)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 64 (19-4) d souths-sm South Sydney 6 (9-14)

sydney city-sm Sydney City 16 (16-7) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 14 (14-9)

manly-sm Manly 22 (13-10) d warriors-sm New Zealand 21 (7-16)

st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 16 (12-11) d penrith-sm Penrith 14 (13-10)

Collated Ladder

Now to look ahead to see what the Collated Ladder has predicted for the final standings of the season.

The Collated Ladder is a bit useless now and I’m mostly just publishing it for completeness. For example, it strangely has both Brisbane and North Queensland losing their final round face-off, which is a relic of the way the ladder comes together. Look at the Stocky column for a better bet:

  • 90% of a last win – Sydney
  • 80% of a last win – Melbourne, Parra
  • 70% of a last win – Penrith, St George
  • Approx 50:50 – Brisbane/NQ and Cronulla/Newcastle

Continue reading “NRL Projections Update – Round 25, 2017”

NRL Projections Update – Round 24, 2017

Results

parramatta-sm Parramatta 30 (14-8) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 8 (7-15)

souths-sm South Sydney 36 (9-13) d warriors-sm New Zealand 18 (7-15)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 24 (15-7) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 12 (11-11)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 44 (18-4) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 12 (5-17)

sydney city-sm Sydney City 22 (15-7) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 18 (6-16)

cronulla-sm Cronulla 26 (14-8) d north qld-sm North Queensland 16 (12-10)

penrith-sm Penrith 26 (13-9) d canberra-sm Canberra 22 (10-12)

canterbury-sm Canterbury 30 (8-14) d manly-sm Manly 16 (12-10)

Collated Ladder

Now to look ahead to see what the Collated Ladder has predicted for the final standings of the season.

Unsurprisingly, the Collated Ladder is starting to closely resemble the actual ladder. The top six are pretty well safe now and I’d be surprised if their positions change much between now and the end of the season.

Due to some shenanigans in the Stocky (which I elaborate on below), positions 7 through 10 have changed rather significantly from last week, particularly if you’re from North Queensland or the northern beaches of Sydney. Points difference is going to be extremely important to secure the last two finals spots. Here’s what the draw has for the teams in the firing line:

  • Dragons: Panthers, then Bulldogs
  • Raiders: Knights, then Storm
  • Sea Eagles: Warriors, then Panthers
  • Cowboys: Tigers, then Broncos

Given the topsy-turvy form on display in recent weeks (e.g. Tigers, Bulldogs, Knights winning), there’s not what you would call any gimmes in that lot, especially given all four contenders are struggling for form. Undoubtedly, something resembling luck will come into it.

Continue reading “NRL Projections Update – Round 24, 2017”

NRL Projections Update – Round 23, 2017

Results

souths-sm South Sydney 28 (8-13) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 14 (7-14)

newcastle-sm Newcastle 29 (5-16) d parramatta-sm Parramatta 10 (13-8)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 32 (14-7) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 10 (13-8)

st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 42 (11-10) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 16 (7-14)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 16 (17-4) d sydney city-sm Sydney City 13 (14-7)

penrith-sm Penrith 24 (12-9) d north qld-sm North Queensland 16 (12-9)

canberra-sm Canberra 36 (10-11) d warriors-sm New Zealand 16 (7-14)

wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 30 (6-15) d manly-sm Manly 26 (12-9)

Collated Ladder

Now to look ahead to see what the Collated Ladder has predicted for the final standings of the season.

Melbourne are currently sitting on sixteen wins and are projected to take eighteen. With three games to go and playing very well, that might be more like nineteen by the end of the regular season. Brisbane and Sydney City close out the top three spots, just as they do now. Both sides are going to stay at least four points off the pace.

The remaining spots are interesting. Penrith in the top four? They’re currently only two points off Cronulla, who are not playing well. Three wins for the Panthers and two for the Sharks would not be a surprising outcome. The Collated Ladder also has the Cowboys not far off the pace and there’s not much to separate them – Stocky wins and Pythag are very close for all three. Fourth place is very important as almost all of the premiership winners of the last twenty years have finished in the top four.

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Analysis – The more competitive the season, the more bums on seats

Most rugby league commentators wouldn’t know what a linear regression is or how do one. I’m no different but I do like to compare two variables and see if they’re correlated. A scatter plot with a linear trendline and an R-squared – remember R-squared goes from 0, no correlation, to 1, perfect correlation; I usually need at least 0.2 to raise an eyebrow – is all I need to keep me entertained for hours on end.

Last week, we looked the concept of competitiveness and how to measure it. This week, I want to see if (more or less) competitiveness impacts on other aspects of the game. Using my preferred ratings gap as a proxy for how competitive a season is, this post looks at a few variables to see if they’re correlated.

If you want a specific variable looked at, give me a yell.

Draws

draws vs gap

Surprisingly, there’s no link between the number of draws and how competitive the season is. There’s basically a correlation of nothing with an R-squared of 0.03 . I think draws are more about the specific teams in question and I think golden point may play a role but the overall season competitiveness doesn’t matter.

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NRL Projections Update – Round 22, 2017

I’m running a bit short on time this week, so I’ll dispense with the usual round up of matches and dive straight into it.

Actually, I’ll take one moment to say that I watched five of the eight games on the weekend (missed the Saturday fixtures) and the Souths-Saints game was the best of the lot. It might be because my expectations were so low but that was a hell of a finish from the Bunnies.

Round 22 Results

parramatta-sm Parramatta 20 (13-7) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 4 (7-13)

souths-sm South Sydney 26 (7-13) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 24 (10-10)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 26 (15-5) d north qld-sm North Queensland 8 (12-8)

newcastle-sm Newcastle 26 (4-16) d warriors-sm New Zealand 10 (7-13)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 54 (13-7) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 0 (7-13)

canberra-sm Canberra 30 (9-11) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 12 (13-7)

manly-sm Manly 36 (12-8) d sydney city-sm Sydney City 18 (14-6)

penrith-sm Penrith 28 (11-9) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 14 (5-15)

Continue reading “NRL Projections Update – Round 22, 2017”